For the past few years, securing a pipeline of new pilots has been a primary concern for airlines around the world. In a 2019 Oliver Wyman poll of flight operations leaders, 62 percent listed a shortage of qualified pilots as a key risk. The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it’s an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training. In China and other regions where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle is to expand capacity fast enough.

The impact also depends on the class of carrier, with 83 percent of regional carriers finding it challenging to recruit talent compared with 22 percent of low-cost carriers. Despite these differences, there were few regions in the world that weren’t dealing with how to secure enough pilots to fuel future growth.

Nearly overnight, with the outbreak of COVID-19, the conversation shifted from shortage to surplus. For carriers that were struggling with pilot supply, this has provided a momentary reprieve. It will not last, and decisions taken today to survive the coronavirus pandemic may threaten the ability of airlines in some regions to recover and grow in the future.

The return of demand

A major question facing the aviation industry is when demand will return. For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond. For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilization rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76 percent of pre-COVID levels. In China, where the outbreak was earlier and better controlled, the in-service fleet is already at 99 percent. While utilization and resulting block hours still lag historic levels globally, we expect the demand for pilots to proceed the recovery of passenger growth by two to three quarters.

In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programs and providing financing. With COVID, many of the airline pipeline levers have come under pressure. Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programs are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the financing are reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet. Finally, the attraction of a stable and lucrative career path now looks much less secure.

These trends have created a supply shock. Pilot candidates will think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. Many furloughed pilots will return, but some may pursue other opportunities. Finally, airlines in some regions have relied heavily on early retirements to reduce costs, which will permanently decrease the supply. Looking at past crises such as 9/11 and the global financial crisis, new pilot certifications fell 30 to 40 percent during the five years after the initial shock. With the global nature of this shock, we believe 25,000 to 35,000 current and future pilots may choose alternative career paths over the next decade.

Emergence of the pilot shortage

The most important question is not whether a pilot shortage will reemerge, but when it will occur and how large the gap will be between supply and demand. Based on a modest recovery scenario, we believe a global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before. However, with a more rapid recovery and greater supply shocks, this could be felt as early as late this year. Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers. One cushion airlines have created consists of 100,000 pilots still on payroll but flying reduced schedules or on voluntary company leave. In the US, such programs have been very popular and will provide the airline some flexibility once the industry begins to recover.

Perhaps more important than the global view are the regional projections. Recovery is not expected to be uniform across the globe and each region has its own demographic considerations. In our analysis, North American, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East are likely to see the largest shortages while Europe, Africa, and Latin America remain closer to equilibrium. In North America, with an aging pilot population and heavy use of early retirements, the shortage reemerges quickly and is projected to reach over 12,000 pilots by 2023 — 13 percent of total demand. However, Asia Pacific, with a faster growth trajectory will surpass this by the end of the decade with a projected shortage of 23,000 pilots by 2029. This can have real implications on the timing and depth of regional shortages as pilots migrate to areas of opportunity, potentially accelerating or deepening shortages in other regions.

In Europe, the supply and demand of pilots are expected to be balanced over the next three to four years. A few European airlines even suspended training and recommended to pilots in training that they abandon the profession altogether. Our view is not so radical since these very candidates will be necessary in the longer term in Europe and could provide valuable service elsewhere across the globe, particularly in Asia.

What airlines can do

For airlines who are currently struggling to right size the operation and remain solvent, the idea of a pilot shortage is far from top of mind. However, it has the real potential to limit their ability to regrow and rebuild their operation in the coming years. There are three main areas where airlines can help to reduce the impact of future pilot shortages:

Reduce pilot demand: Take the opportunity to rethink crew operations and improve crew productivity, thereby reducing the total pilots required, while driving down costs in the processReinforce the pipeline: Continue to invest in training programs and pilot recruitment, including resolving emerging financing challengesEngage the workforce: Recognize the likelihood of increased competition, particularly for furloughed pilots, and actively engage to improve retention

How quickly airlines can regrow their operation will be guided by how quickly they can regrow their pilot ranks. Those that take action now increase the agility of the airline to capture demand as it recovers.

HIGH SCHOOL FLIGHT TRAINING SCHOLARSHIPS

MADE POSSIBLE THROUGH DONATIONS TO THE AOPA FOUNDATION

This program is part of the AOPA High School Aviation Initiative that works to create and support high school aviation science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) programs, opening career pathways for the next generation of aviation and aerospace professionals.

If you are 15 to 18 years old and dream of earning your wings, the AOPA You Can Fly High School Flight Training Scholarship Program can help.

Through the initiative, AOPA will award a minimum of $100,000 in flight training scholarships to deserving high school students who are genuinely passionate about pursuing a pilot’s certificate. Each winner will receive $5,000 toward primary flight training.

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

Scholarship applicants* must meet all the criteria listed below:

1. Current high school student, 15 to 18 years old

2. U.S. citizen or U.S. permanent resident

3. Parent or guardian approval (under 18 years of age)

4. Not have completed a sport, recreational, glider, or private pilot certificate at the time of application

5. Minimum GPA of 2.75

6. Complete solo flight or achieve pilot certificate within one year of receiving the scholarship

* Employees of AOPA and their immediate family members and household members are not eligible to participate in the AOPA High School Flight Training Scholarship Program. The term “immediate family members” includes siblings, children, and grandchildren.

APPLY NOW

https://youcanfly.aopa.org/scholarships/ycf-highschool-flight-training-scholarship#eligibility

We are now over 70 collegiate aviation programs listed under the resources section. This is on the left side of this page.

NBAA's scholarship program, generously supported through Member donors, offers nearly $100,000 annually in cash awards as tuition reimbursement for enrolled students, and nearly the same amount in monetary and training awards for working professionals in business aviation, including pilots, maintenance professionals, schedulers, dispatchers, flight attendants and flight technicians.

Individuals who have received NBAA scholarships have gone on to even more successful careers in business aviation. “It’s very rewarding to see where these professionals have started and where they are today,” says NBAA Director, Operations Jay Evans, who coordinates NBAA scholarships. “Helping one another in this industry is what a career in business aviation is all about.”

Take advantage of these offerings to ascend in your aviation career; apply for an NBAA scholarship today.

Upcoming Application Deadlines

The following scholarship programs have upcoming application deadlines. This page is updated regularly as new applications become available.

• Schedulers & Dispatchers Monetary Scholarship
  Application due Sept. 27, 2013
• Schedulers & Dispatchers Training Scholarship
  Application due Sept. 27, 2013
• UAA Janice K. Barden Aviation Scholarship
  Application due Nov. 1, 2013
• Donald A. Baldwin Sr. Business Aviation Management Scholarship
  Application due Nov. 15, 2013
• International Operators Scholarship
  Application due Nov. 29, 2013

NBAA Scholarship Overview

NBAA offers a wide range of scholarship options for current and aspiring business aviation professionals. For details about monetary and training awards, click on the following links or scroll down.

Current NBAA-Sponsored Scholarships for Students

The Association currently offers the following scholarships to highly qualified students studying aviation-related curricula at institutions of higher learning.

Alan H. Conklin Business Aviation Management Scholarship:

* US Citizenship or Permanent Resident status

Lawrence Ginocchio Aviation Scholarship:

* US Citizenship or Permanent Resident status

UAA Janice K. Barden Aviation Scholarship:

* US Citizenship or Permanent Resident status

William M. Fanning Maintenance Scholarship:

* US Citizenship or Permanent Resident status

NBAA and Conklin & de Decker established the Alan H. Conklin Business Aviation Management Scholarship to benefit undergraduates pursuing careers in business aviation management at NBAA- and University Aviation Association (UAA)-affiliated institutions. The scholarship was created to honor the memory of Al Conklin, U.S. Air Force veteran, co-founder of Conklin & de Decker and business aviation leader for more than 60 years.

The Lawrence Ginocchio Aviation Scholarship was created in 2001 by NBAA and the family and friends of the late Lawrence Ginocchio to honor his outstanding personal contribution to the business aviation community. The scholarship benefits undergraduate students officially enrolled at NBAA/ UAA-member institutions.

Named for Janice Barden, an active participant in the business aviation community for decades, the UAA Janice K. Barden Aviation Scholarship benefits undergraduates studying aviation-related curricula at NBAA/UAA-member institutions.

NBAA named the William M. Fanning Maintenance Scholarship for a retired NBAA staff member who was active in maintenance issues during his nearly 20-year tenure at the Association. This scholarship annually benefits two recipients: a student who currently is enrolled in an accredited airframe and powerplant (A&P) program at an approved FAR Part 147 school, and a second individual who is currently not enrolled but has been accepted for enrollment in an A&P program.

For More Information

Click on the links above to individual scholarship pages. For companies wishing to donate funds or training awards in support of NBAA scholarships, and for all other questions, contact NBAA at (202) 783-9250 or info@nbaa.org.

By Benét J. Wilson

AOPA and the Metropolitan State University of Denver (MSUD) are partners in a new Collegiate Alliance that will provide all incoming freshmen in the university’s aviation and aerospace science program with a free AOPA membership. With more than 500 students, MSUD’s program is one of the largest baccalaureate aviation and aerospace programs in the nation, and the largest in AOPA’s Northwest Mountain Region.

The alliance was created as a way for AOPA to collaborate with the collegiate aviation community to ensure the long-term health of the aviation industry by educating, supporting and preparing its future leaders. Through the new alliance, MSUD’s Aviation and Aerospace Science Department students will benefit from AOPA’s comprehensive suite of industry-leading resources and expertise. MSUD students will receive additional support to reinforce and improve their educational performance and career planning opportunities.

Additionally, as a collegiate alliance partner, MSUD will have the opportunity to receive either marketing, promotional or scholarship support aimed at enhancing and growing MSUD’s aviation and aerospace science program.

“AOPA is committed to the future of general aviation, and works with a variety of educational institutions, museums and other organizations to develop and grow the next generation of aviation enthusiasts and professionals through programs like AV8RS and partnerships with the Experimental Aircraft Association,” said AOPA Northwest Mountain Region Manager David Ulane, an alum of MSUD’s Aviation and Aerospace Science program.

Ulane participated in the university’s new aviation and aerospace new student orientation on Aug. 16, the only department-specific orientation conducted at the university. During the half-day event, incoming students heard from many industry experts on tools for success in their aviation careers, and Ulane introduced the students to their new memberships. Other participants in the event included Jeppesen CEO Mark VanTine and United Airlines Captain Mike McCasky.

For additional information on the AOPA Collegiate Alliance program, please contact Lauren Otto, Director of New Market Development at 301-695-2132 or via email.

Topics AOPA Membership, AOPA Partners, Pilot Youth and Introductory

Scholarship Applications

The first, and sometimes most difficult, step to being awarded any scholarship is simply completing the application process by the posted deadline. By meeting the initial deadline, an applicant demonstrates responsibility and respect for the sponsor. Try to place yourself in the shoes of the scholarship sponsor. Would you award funding to a person that didn't follow the application submission process? Applications that are late or incomplete will, most likely, never be considered. With scholarships that barely have any applicant submissions, providing the correct material by the deadline could be the only barrier to becoming the recipient.

On the other hand, well-known scholarships have so many qualified applicants that selecting a recipient becomes a cumbersome process for the sponsor. After submitting an application, being selected to receive the scholarship is merely a factor of standing out in a crowd. Be sure to give personal touches to your writing anytime an essay is required. An initial catch phrase or a unique story helps the sponsor remember your words when it comes time to choose the recipient from a stack of status quo applications.

To help you with finding and applying for aviation scholarships, AOPA has compiled a list of aviation scholarships and the contact information associated with each. The listing below is intended to help you to begin your search for financial assistance in the form of scholarship opportunities. You can find more institution-specific scholarship listings from your school's financial aid office.

AOPA Scholarships

AOPA Flight Training Scholarships

Aviation Scholarships

Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA) Scholarships

National Air Transportation Association (NATA) Scholarships

National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Scholarships

National Gay Pilots Association Scholarships

Ninety-Nines, International Organization of Women Pilots Scholarships

University Aviation Association (UAA) Scholarship Listing

Women in Aviation, International Scholarship Listing

Dream Wings Scholarship
Contact: Kris Chana
13249 Fieldstone Road
Fort Worth, TX 76244
817.201.3113
Email: kris@dreamwings.org
Website: www.dreamwings.org
Application deadline: March
Amount awarded: (1) $1,000 scholarship annually

Girls with Wings 
1275 Andrews Avenue 
Lakewood, OH 44107-2403 
216/221-0577; fax 216/221-3770 
Contact: Linda Meeks 
E-mail: lmeeks@girlswithwings.com 
Website: http://girlswithwings.com
Amount awarded: Two $1,000 scholarships

The LeRoy W. Homer Jr. Scholarships
Contact: Cheryl Homer Wilson, Executive Director
800/388-1647
Website: www.leroywhomerjr.org/scholarships.html 
Approximate application deadline: February 28
Amount(s) awarded: (3) $3,500-$6,000

Harold S. Wood Scholarship
Contact: Kelly Wargo, General Aviation Manufacturers Association
1400 K Street, NW
Suite 801
Washington, DC 20005
202/393-1500
E-mail: kwargo@gama.aero
Approximate application deadline: April
Amount(s) awarded: (1) $1000 scholarship awarded annually. Must be a member of a NIFA team.

Whirly Girls Helicopter Add-on Flight Training Scholarship
Contact: Patricia Calder, VP Scholarship
Website: www.whirlygirls.org 
E-mail: WGVPscholarships@whirlygirls.org 
Application deadline: October 1 

Regional scholarships

The Alaska Airmen’s Association

Aero Club of New England

Montana Department of Transportation

Minnesota Aviation Trades Association Flight Scholarship 
Attention: Scholarship Committee
PO Box11945 
Saint Paul, MN 55111  
Website: http://sites.google.com/site/mnaviationtrades/Home/scholarships 
Award(s) and amount(s): $2,000

Would you like to add your scholarship to this resource list? Please email FTscholarship@aopa.org.